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April 8, 2009 Thoughts On What “They” Say
- What are some of the things “they” have said? We would all be telecommuters (1990s), we would have multiple terror attacks (2001), oil will be $300 per barrel and gas, $8.
Well, here we are, in the beginning of March 2009, and again in the grip of financial panic and fear. So many of you have spoken to me about what “they” say–”they” being what we all read and hear. And of course, none of us are immune to what “they” say… The “they” being media, experts and our own intelligent and informed friends. In no way does this minimize the obviously serious issues the global economy faces; however, it had me thinking about how those predictions have turned out…
Some Predictions
Let’s start in the late 1990’s with the internet boom and dot com stocks… remember that? No one would leave their house, we would all be “telecommuters.” We all know how that ended. But, in 1999, gold was $250 an ounce and oil was $10 a barrel. Did they talk about that? Gold recently hit $1,000 an ounce and oil hit $150 per barrel during summer 2008.
Then came Sept. 11th and the subsequent anthrax scare. Everyone said we would have multiple terror attacks coming and I’m sure a few of you bought duct tape and cipro for the coming biological/anthrax attack.
Next up was the ongoing bear market in stocks, that started in March 2000 and ended around March 2003. By that Spring, everyone knew stocks would keep going down and bonds/money market were the best investments… stock markets doubled from there!
Let’s see what’s next? Oh, of course, real estate! Remember all the t.v. shows, flip that house, etc. lines of people camped out overnight in Miami and Las Vegas, to get a ticket for the privilege of paying over asking price for a house/apartment…
Well, how about summer 2008 and oil hit $150 per barrel and gas $4 per gallon… they knew oil would be $300 and gas, $8! Remember that? Remember the Hybrid Toyota Prius, people waiting months and paying thousands over list price to get one… dealer lots are full of them. As recently as the beginning of this year, oil touched $25…
So, that brings us to today’s fear, panic and “end of days” talk, all of it with urgent certainty… hmmm let’s see….
Remember… no hard landing, and emerging markets will “decouple”? Remember the idea of what we call a soft landing–the economy will have a soft landing, and not a hard landing? Much of this analysis is just a sales pitch. Those are my thoughts on “they.” Thank you.
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